History and a career-defining moment hang in the balance of Monday's final at Flushing Meadows between No. 10 Kei Nishikori and No. 14 Marin Cilic, one of the most unexpected Grand Slam finals in the sport's history.
Neither has ever reached a Grand Slam final, and Nishikori is the first Asian man to advance to a Grand Slam singles final in history. As ESPN Stats & Info records, the duel violently disrupts the current tennis timeline, too:
Beneath the bright lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium Monday evening, one man will seize history and a piece of momentum that may very well reshape the tennis landscape as we know it.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the top storylines to monitor as the two partake in the sure-to-be entertaining affair.
The Health of Kei Nishikori
Now 24 years old, those who know Nishikori's journey to date can be forgiven for being pleasantly surprised at his ability to make it this far while in good health.
Nishikori's quick-twitch style that owns the baseline and leaves opponents searching for answers also seems to do a great deal of harm to his stamina and health—a major reason why Monday is his first Grand Slam final.
Nick Bollettieri, who coached Andre Agassi, understands this best.
“He and Xavier Malisse and Marcelo Rios are the best shotmakers I’ve ever worked with,” Bollettieri said before the season, per Christopher Clarey of The New York Times. "If Kei Nishikori could stay healthy, he could be and would be right up with the big boys.”
Well, Nishikori is healthy, and here we are.
Thanks to an elite return game and that aforementioned speed, the Japanese star has taken down three top-five seeds. He went to five sets with No. 5 Milos Raonic, 4-6, 7-6 (4), 6-7 (6), 7-5, 6-4, before another five against No. 3 Stan Wawrinka, 3-6, 7-5, 7-6, 6-7, 6-4—the former lasted until 2:26 a.m. ET.
Of course, he then needed just four sets to take down No. 1 Novak Djokovic (6-4, 1-6, 7-6, 6-3).
Monday, Nishikori's stamina will be put to the ultimate test. It has clearly been a draining tournament to date and a sprint that he has never encountered. As long as he stays in form and upright, the match will be a competitive one.
Cilic's Reliance on the Serve
Based on their respective journeys so far, Cilic certainly seems the underdog.
He struggled against No. 18 Kevin Anderson (6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4), as well as with No. 26 Gilles Simon (5-7, 7-6, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3). He then hit on a hot streak and pulled the best game of his career out of his hat against No. 2 Roger Federer, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4.
As the title suggests, perhaps the Croatian's biggest issue as he heads into the final is his reliance on production from his serve. Against Federer, he won 87 percent of his first-serve points. In that struggle against Simon, he won just 53 percent. Against Anderson? 56 percent.
Simon was arguably the best returner Cilic faced in his recent matches, and that one went to five sets.
Nishikori trumps them all.
Clarey explains what makes the Japanese superstar so great, which also happens to give him a major advantage over his adversary in the final:
His returns are among the best in the game, as are his groundstrokes, and though Raonic did his intimidating best to keep the exchanges short, pounding 35 aces, Nishikori’s racket-head control and reflexes kept many points alive where lesser technicians and athletes would have failed.
Something has to give Monday, as Cilic's great serve game meets a return game that has given him loads of trouble in the past.
Which brings us to the final point...
How Does History Impact the Final?
Nishikori has had no problem with Cilic.
He holds a 5-2 all-time advantage over his opponent, with this year's matches being rather simple. A 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 outcome in the quarterfinals of Brisbane and a 6-1, 6-3 finish in the quarterfinals in Barcelona suggest Nishikori has an advantage.
But not so fast: The two have met at Flushing Meadows before. Twice, in fact. In 2010, Nishikori outlasted his rival, 5-7, 7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(3), 6-1. In 2012, he went down, 6-3, 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-3.
Still, history says Nishikori is usually able to outlast Cilic. Even better is the fact the last two results have been in his favor. Unless Cilic somehow pulls out another career-best performance, one can feel safe in thinking it will be Nishikori who takes home his first-ever Grand Slam title.
Prediction: Nishikori wins, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6, 6-4
Note: All info courtesy of USOpen.org unless otherwise specified. Stats courtesy of ATPWorldtour.com.
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