The Miami Hurricanes are preparing for the reigning Coastal Division champion Duke Blue Devils, but there's more at stake than a simple conference win.
Although the 'Canes have yet to encounter any of their six Coastal foes, Miami cannot afford a loss to the Blue Devils. After stumbling at Louisville in the season opener and with top-ranked Florida State looming in November, falling short of a victory practically shatters any chance at the division crown.
It's not quite a doomsday scenario, but the Hurricanes would need some serious help otherwise.
In the 10 years the conference has been split into divisions, three losses in conference action have largely doomed a program's chances at clinching a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Just twice—Virginia Tech in 2007 and Georgia Tech in 2012—has five wins earned an extra weekend of football.
Now, fortunately for Miami, the Coastal Division is an absolute mess in 2014.
Georgia Tech was nearly beaten by Georgia Southern, yet managed to knock off Virginia Tech on the road. The Hokies were overpowered by a talented East Carolina roster, and the Pirates made North Carolina look terribly silly, too.
Virginia Tech is struggling to the point longtime head coach Frank Beamer said, per Mark Giannotto of The Washington Post, "We're not a good football team right now."
Additionally, Pittsburgh fell behind Florida International 16-0 before the Panthers realized they couldn't simply show up and trample an inferior opponent. Then, Pitt fell to a strictly mediocre Iowa unit searching for a starting quarterback.
As it stands, supposed bottom feeder Virginia has been the biggest surprise of the weak division. The Wahoos have already shocked Louisville—a team that beat the Hurricanes—and the victory was sandwiched between superb challenges of UCLA and BYU.
The Coastal has been flipped on its head, but the confusion completely favors Duke.
Sitting pretty at 4-0, the Blue Devils have surrendered a mere 11.5 points per game and easily handled Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. While those four victories don't make Duke an elite squad, the wins do mean the Blue Devils are smashing lesser competitors as they should.
David Cutcliffe's crew is entering an extremely favorable ACC slate, playing its next two games on the road at Miami and Georgia Tech before the burden lessens considerably.
Pittsburgh's rushing attack poses a formidable test, but Duke hosts Virginia, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Plus, the Blue Devils' pair of crossover games are against Syracuse and Wake Forest.
Since the Coastal is a disaster, tiebreakers are likely to play a decisive role in determining the division champion.
The most important one to hold is a head-to-head victory, and that advantage is ripe for the taking this weekend. However, Duke grabbing that advantage would severely hamper the Hurricanes' chances at dethroning the Blue Devils.
Hypothetical scenarios for crawling back into the Coastal picture exist, but those aren't worth discussing until a later date. The Hurricanes have a penchant for randomly collapsing in a conference game, and there's little reason to believe that tendency doesn't continue in 2014.
Considering the way Miami's defense played against Nebraska, how could the trend not? Regardless, those hypothetical ideas fall under the "cross that bridge when we come to it" idiom.
Duke could certainly have a lapse one or two weekends, but finding three losses after Miami in that schedule is difficult.
The 'Canes aren't totally dead with a loss, but the Blue Devils gain a clear-cut upper hand on them with a win. Miami must hand Duke its first "L" of the year, lest Duke Johnson, Brad Kaaya and Co. cede all control of their conference destiny before September concludes.
Source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2207090-miami-football-why-canes-cannot-afford-loss-to-duke
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