The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans both left the ranks of the unbeaten last week with their first losses of the season, and each will look to rebound and stay in first place of their respective divisions when they square off Sunday.
The favored Texans have gone 3-0 straight-up and against the spread in their past three home games against AFC East opponents.
Point spread: The Texans opened as three-point favorites and the total was 41, and both numbers have held steady during the week. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 21.2-14.4 Bills
Why the Bills can cover the spread
While the Bills are no longer undefeated, the most important thing for them to do right now in preparation for this game is remember how they won their first two games and not lose any confidence after last week’s 22-10 home loss to the San Diego Chargers.
Buffalo has already won on the road, beating the Chicago Bears 23-20 in overtime in the season opener. The Bears have won both their games since losing to the Bills, making that victory look even better.
Buffalo also gets to face a Houston offense that has struggled to score at times and probably knows what that is like better than most teams since Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was its starter a few years ago.
Why the Texans can cover the spread
Houston’s defense remains one of the NFL’s best despite suffering from a bit of a letdown last week in a 30-17 road loss to the New York Giants.
The Texans were playing their second consecutive road game and on opposites coasts within a two-week time period. Now they are home where they shut down the Washington Redskins 17-6 in their season opener.
Houston is 3-0 straight-up and against the spread in its last three home games against AFC East opponents and will likely rely on its defense yet again here in facing second-year QB E.J. Manuel of the Bills.
Smart Pick
Buffalo is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as road underdogs, with one of those two wins coming at Chicago in Week 1. The other cover away from home for the Bills as dogs over that stretch came against the Miami Dolphins in Week 7 of last year.
In their last two meetings with the Texans they lost both by a combined 33 points and scored only 19 points, failing to cover the spread in each game. Meanwhile, Houston is a much different team than the one that played so poorly last season and will be able to shut down Buffalo’s offense.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 4-1 in the past five games for the Bills overall. Consider playing the UNDER along with the Texans, as both cashed in the past two games between the teams and should again here.
Trends
- Buffalo is 5-19 SU in its last 24 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in four of Houston's last five games when playing Buffalo
Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.
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