It takes a lot to win a Triple Crown. It takes a truly special, athletic, graceful yet resilient horse. It takes luck. It takes decent post positions and good runs.
It takes a lot.
Does American Pharoah have enough? That's the question that will be asked most frequently in the lead-up to the Preakness, and if the Bob Baffert-trained horse wins at Pimlico. And why not? We haven't had a horse win the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978.
The '70s were the last golden period, with three horses—Secretariat in 1973, Seattle Slew in 1977 and Affirmed the next year—achieving the sport's most prized accomplishment. We've waited 37 years in the hopes the drought might end.
But there is plenty standing in Pharoah's way. For starters, the field at the Preakness looks like it will be really strong, with Dortmund, Firing Line and Danzig Moon heading to the race and Carpe Diem, Materiality, and Competitive Edge all still possibilities to run. That's an incredibly strong cast of characters for the shorter Pimlico track. If Todd Pletcher sends his top three horses, then several horses in the running could beat American Pharoah.
It's doubtful American Pharoah will get as clean a run as he did at the Derby, when he broke well, quickly got in front of the pack, settled behind Dortmund—who set a very slow pace—and had plenty of room to break wide at the end of the final turn and had space down the stretch to kick it into high gear.
One of the speedier horses will likely set a much faster pace, and American Pharoah may find himself in a position of either needing to be at a higher gear for the entire race, leading wire-to-wire or tapping into his closing speed much earlier in the race than he did at the Derby.
Jockey Victor Espinoza will have his hands full, in other words.
But that's just the Preakness. There's the whole matter of then preparing for the Belmont Stakes should American Pharoah survive at Pimlico, a month-long stretch of racing the horse simply isn't accustomed to running. Not only that, but fresh contenders will return for the Belmont, fresh and prepared to keep Pharoah from making history.
Will Pharoah have the endurance to make it three in a row? Will he get another good run? Can he handle the longest of the Triple Crown races? Will another horse run the race of his life?
So yes, the questions are plentiful for American Pharoah's quest for history. To accomplish the Triple Crown in today's climate is obviously far more difficult than it once was.
American Pharoah is a special horse. Whether he's special enough to pull off this feat is another question entirely.
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