This season marked just the fourth time in the Tim Duncan-Gregg Popovich era where the San Antonio Spurs exited the postseason after one round of competition. Understanding what went wrong is more about diagnostic accuracy than finger-pointing.
But however one frames the fallout, point guard Tony Parker will shoulder his sizable share of the blame. And the franchise's near-term fate may now hinge on a return to form that's anything but guaranteed at this increasingly late stage of his career.
Can Parker do it again?
Injuries to his ankle and Achilles may be largely responsible for Parker's forgettable performance against the Los Angeles Clippers. Something was clearly amiss.
The six-time All-Star seemed more like a role player during the opening round, averaging just 10.9 points and 3.6 assists against a far superior Chris Paul. Some outings were more painful than others, and the few signs of life were all for naught. Parker scored a combined 38 points in Games 4 and 7—both losses.
And he inexplicably tallied just one point in 30 minutes during a narrow Game 2 win, just six points in 26 minutes during a more lopsided Game 3 victory.
For the series, Parker made just 36.3 percent of his field-goal attempts, never once making more than 50 percent of his attempts in a contest. The usually efficient floor general was rarely effective and anything but consistent in a seven-game stretch that was microcosmic of his season at large.
The now 33-year-old posted perhaps the most disappointing numbers of his 14-year career. Parker's 14.4 points and 4.9 assists per contest ranked as his lowest output since a 2001-02 rookie campaign—and his 28.7 minutes per game marked a career low.
At first glance, one might be fooled into believing this was a natural step back in terms of production. After all, that 48.6 field-goal percentage wasn't so bad. Parker remained a typically efficient weapon, especially when healthy.
And yet, for whatever reason, this wasn't quite the Parker to whom we've become accustomed—nor the version San Antonio needed to make good on its repeat bid.
Solving the Mid-Range Mystery
Though Parker is probably best known for his lightning-quick penetration (and corresponding finishing ability), it's his in-between game that allows him to mix things up and keep opposing guards honest. Without it, defenders can sag comfortably nearer the painted area.
San Antonio's pick-and-roll success—and general floor spacing—depends upon Parker's ability to pull defenders to the perimeter. That, in turn, requires Parker to make jump shots. To that end, he was merely average this season.
Note how his success rate from mid-range (10 to 20 feet) hovered around 40 percent this season.
Now take a look at the spikes in efficiency from that range a season ago.
Parker never looked as comfortable from those ranges this season, even when moving to the left and finding those sweet spots just beyond the key's elbow.
That's a problem for San Antonio's offense. Parker's ability to score off the dribble has long been the club's option of last resort when the shot clock begins winding down. If and when the plays break down and ball movement slows, Parker's ability to pull up and drain a jumper has been pivotal.
This isn't the first time Parker's shooting efficiency has deviated from his career mark of 49.4 percent. But that doesn't mean there's an obvious explanation for the aberrations.
The best guess in this instance is the four-time champion struggled to find his rhythm after being sidelined by injury for most of December. Parker's field-goal efficiency sat at just 40.7 percent in January and an even more perplexing 39.6 percent in February.
It wasn't until a far more successful March that he raised those marks to 55.5 percent—more like the Parker we've all come to expect. For a minute there, it seemed as if Parker might get it going just in time for the playoffs. Instead, March now looks like an outlier amid an otherwise injury-riddled season.
Staying healthy is likely paramount to Parker remaining a top-tier scorer. He's shown signs he can continue to be just that—both in March and earlier in the season. But one can't expect consistent production without steady health.
If injury isn't responsible for disturbing Parker's rhythm, it's more difficult to make sense of what went wrong—or how to make it right.
But given the miles Parker's legs have logged, Spurs fans may find it hard to get behind his plans to play for Team France in this summer's Eurobasket tournament. Now seems like a good time for some well-deserved rest, and some hoping it does a body good.
Instead, Parker is trying something a little different—starting his workouts in June, earlier than he did a summer ago.
"I will change my preparation," Parker recently told AFP News. "Last year, I cut two months after the NBA title. This summer I'm going to do differently. From June 1, I will start to get back in shape, to do much strength training to prevent these injuries.
"I'm getting older and my body does not respond as quickly as when I was younger."
Yes, it's the opposite of rest. But Parker knows his body better than second-guessing pundits.
A Passing Grade
Parker's offensive regression can't be measured in points alone. His assists have tapered off in each of the last two seasons, making Parker one of his position's more mediocre distributors.
He hasn't been the same decision-making whiz who anchored San Antonio's offense in 2011-12 and 2012-13. He tallied 7.7 and 7.6 assists per contest, respectively, during those seasons before posting just 5.7 per game a season ago.
Given the extent to which Parker must look for his own offense, no one can blame him for being a second-best passer. He's no CP3, and he really never has been. But Parker has done a better job of setting his teammates up, at least according to the numbers.
Some of that reduction has to do with usage. Empirically, the Spurs are utilizing Parker less by the season—in part because of an increasingly democratized offensive scheme and in part because of Kawhi Leonard's ascension as a playmaker in his own right.
According to Hollinger Player Stats, Parker's usage rate has decreased in each of the last two seasons, down from a mark of 26.6 in 2012-13. It was 25.9 in 2013-14 and an even lower 23.9 last season.
For Parker to be a maximally effective facilitator, he needs the ball in his hands more often.
That might not be in the cards given the direction of San Antonio's offense, and that may require the 33-year-old to do more with less—to make the most of his opportunities by making quick, deliberate decisions and striking the painted area with greater regularity.
Parker has never been a selfish player. The instincts are there. But fewer minutes and touches have taken their toll on his ability to really take games over.
Fewer opportunities to make plays could have an atrophying effect on Parker's game, taking him out of his rhythm and turning him into a more passive creator in the process. San Antonio needs Parker to be aggressive—not merely as a means to his own layups and floaters but also to break down defensive perimeters and create looks for others.
At his best, that's Parker's bread and butter. At his worst, it seems like something of an afterthought.
The other variable is what Parker does when the ball is in his hands. In theory, he should be using his quickness to drive and—at least sometimes—dish the ball out to open shooters or drop it off with a big man in the painted area. That's not happening as frequently as it used to.
As ESPN.com's Tim Struby noted in March, "Over the past two campaigns, his drives to the hoop have dropped almost 10 percent. This year he's averaging only 6.1 points in the paint, his lowest since '01-02. A balky hamstring has been partially responsible, but not completely."
For now, forget about the points in the paint. Without those drives, other Spurs lose points, too. That's historically what's made Parker such an elite floor general. He's more than a scorer.
Yes, there have been good passers in this rotation, but no one like Parker.
Getting him back to usual form may be as simple as putting the ball in his hands and telling him to do what he's always done. Excepting much of the 2014-15 season, he's done it pretty well.
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