As we head into the conference finals, it appears on paper that the NBA playoffs have lived up to their reputation as the most predictable among the four major sports.
For the second straight season, the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in both conferences advanced to the league's final four. The Cavaliers, Hawks and Warriors each dispatched their opponents in six games. The Rockets needed seven. If you somehow slipped into a month-long sleep at the end of the regular season, it would appear as if nothing has changed.
That, of course, would be a blatant lie.
Cleveland enters with its Big Three possibly depleted to a Lonely One. Kevin Love's out for the playoffs with a shoulder injury, Kyrie Irving's being held together by Elmer's glue and LeBron is coming off one of his worst postseason series ever.
A dominant, 60-win team in the regular season, Atlanta has looked vulnerable in each of the first two rounds. The difference between the Hawks preparing for Cleveland or a Game 7 against Washington arguably came down to a fraction of a second.
Houston just pulled off one of the better comebacks in NBA history, overcoming a 3-1 deficit to knock off the Clippers. That said, it's notable that the Rockets faced that deficit in the first place. They were outscored by 58 points in Games 3 and 4 and looked completely done before roaring back against L.A. in Game 6.
The Warriors? Well, they're still just really dope.
With that in mind, let's preview the conference finals.
Eastern Conference: No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 1 Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks and Cavs could not have two more polar opposite offensive philosophies. Atlanta has become Spurs East under Mike Budenholzer, employing the motion-based system that has widely influenced the way the game is played around the league.
Jeff Teague is not a point guard in a slash-and-kick sense. He's a conduit to something that can at times represent poetry in motion. The Hawks drill threes, make extra passes and trust their role players to make the right decisions—even when that trust doesn't result in success. It's a process-based system that's generated results all season.
Atlanta was among the teams least reliant on shots created off the dribble and attempted the second-most spot-up shots in the league, per Synergy Sports. For Cleveland, a team that often struggles with defensive communication and relies too heavily on Timofey Mozgov's size to atone for its mistakes, the Hawks are a potential nightmare.
The Cavs are the polar opposite of the Hawks. At times, watching them takes you back to 2008—and not in a good way. While LeBron's successful Miami teams embraced whirring ball movement, the Cavs have regressed to a style that is eerily similar to how they played during his first stop in his hometown.
Staid pick-and-rolls and isolations are a way of life. Cleveland was by far the league's most iso-heavy team during the regular season. Thank the basketball gods for tracking data, otherwise the next sentence would have read: "It's hard to tell how many possessions have ended with LeBron or Irving hoists as everyone else stood around."
Watching the Cavs play offense is rarely fun. That's not to say it isn't effective—they're leading the playoffs in offensive efficiency and were fourth in the regular season—it's just a disappointing result given their talent.
Series are rarely defined by one overarching theme. But this? This feels like a requiem on the team vs. talent debate. If Irving can remain reasonably healthy, Cleveland will have the two best players on the floor at all times and has shown enough bench depth to not suffer the Clippers' fate. Atlanta has the perfect system in place and had four All-Stars in its own right.
Don't be surprised if this takes seven games.
Western Conference: No. 2 Houston Rockets vs. No. 1 Golden State Warriors
Do be surprised if this goes all seven. The Rockets deserve all the credit in the world for eliminating the Clippers. Throw all your Dwight Howard, James Harden and Daryl Morey jokes out the window now. Hell, maybe even toss out a few Josh Smith ones while you're at it.
Morey whiffed on Chris Bosh, let Chandler Parsons walk and constructed a conference finalist bench out of other teams' spare parts. Houston's bulletproof and deserves every bit of praise it has coming.
That said: NOPE! Barring a major injury, the Rockets are not beating this Golden State core in a seven-game series. The Warriors boast a starting five every bit as dominant as the Clippers and have the bench strength to back it up.
David Lee was an All-Star just two years ago, Andre Iguodala would start for three-quarters of the league and Shaun Livingston has done a fine job of spelling in the rare moments Stephen Curry needs a breather.
To wit: Golden State has barely noticed Marreese Speights' absence. Speights was an X-factor off the bench for Steve Kerr throughout the regular season and would arguably be the Warriors' best reserve.
After going down 2-1 to Memphis in the second round, Golden State recaptured what made it one of the best regular-season teams in league history. The Grizzlies were essentially ground into Sixers-level futility on both ends of the floor over the series' final three games. Actually, that's an insult to Philly's defense. Memphis looked like a combination of the Sixers' offense with the Timberwolves' defense.
"I think what you see with their team is I think that they really grew up," Memphis coach Dave Joerger told reporters. "They really grew through the battle of this series and matured to the point where I think that will help them, unfortunately, in the future being able to take the hits that they took and the physicality that I think we are known for."
The Rockets and Warriors played four times in the regular season, and each game went Golden State's way. The games were decided by an average of 15.25 points, all double-digit losses for Houston.
To say I expect a sweep would be a lie. Four regular-season games are far different than a postseason series. The Rockets were still adjusting to Josh Smith the last time these two played and will undoubtedly take a ton of momentum into the conference finals.
But when it comes to taking four games in seven from Golden State, let me reiterate: NOPE!
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.
Stats via NBA.com.
No comments:
Post a Comment