Thursday 31 May 2012

Fantasy Baseball 2012: The Carlos Gonzalez Trade-Value Conundrum

The word "hot" does not even begin to describe Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez right now. His fantasy dominance is working at every level...and from every angle.

On Wednesday night against the Astros, Gonzalez belted three homers, while collecting four hits and four RBI. Two days prior, he tallied four hits; and four days before that (May 27), he crushed two homers against the Reds.

From a 15-day perspective, CarGo has six homers, 12 RBIs, 14 runs, one steal and a .362 batting average. From a 30-day window, it's nine homers, 23 RBIs, 23 runs, three steals and a .336 batting average.

And from a National League-only perspective for the season, Gonzalez (13 HR, 41 RBIs, 41 runs, seven steals, .323 batting) ranks first in runs scored, ninth in hits, third in homers, third in RBIs, 22nd in steals, 10th in batting, first in slugging (.629) and fourth in OPS (1.020).

Put it all together, and we're faced with a question I could never have anticipated at the end of April: If Gonzalez currently has better stats than Matt Kemp (12 HR, 28 RBIs, 30 runs, two steals, .355 batting), and Kemp is on his second go-round with a substantial hamstring injury, does it not make more sense to covet Gonzalez from this point forward, as well?

Obviously, outfield stars like Kemp, Josh Hamilton (21 HR, 57 RBI, 39 runs, four steals, .368 batting) and Ryan Braun (14 HR, 36 RBI, 34 runs, 10 steals, .309 batting) deserve to be at the top of owners' wish lists, when exploring trade upgrades at fantasy baseball's most vital position. But given his age (26), five-tool talent, spurt prowess, health track record and home ballpark (Coors Field), is Gonzalez the safest superstar of the bunch?

Call me crazy, but Gonzalez is the pick here, so much that I couldn't even conceive a 1-for-1 trade involving CarGo and a non-outfielder. His current value simply overwhelms that of any elite corner infielder or starting pitcher.

(For the record, AccuScore has Gonzalez projected for 21.3 homers, 71.5 RBI, 76.7 runs, 15.8 steals and a .287 batting average from this point forward—May 31 to Sept. 30.)

Here's a balanced, three-tiered breakdown of Gonzalez's trade value in 12-team roto leagues:

1-for-2
Gonzalez for Adam Jones/C.J. Wilson
Gonzalez for Andrew McCutchen/Matt Cain
Gonzalez for Ian Kinsler/Justin Verlander
Gonzalez for Mark Trumbo/Cole Hamels

1-for-3
Gonzalez for Matt Holliday/Anibal Sanchez/John Axford
Gonzalez for Jose Reyes/Gio Gonzalez/Ricky Romero
Gonzalez for Asdrubal Cabrera/Michael Bourn/Chris Sale
Gonzalez for Martin Prado/Josh Reddick/Madison Bumgarner

2-for-3
CarGo/Joe Mauer for Clayton Kershaw/Adrian Beltre/Yadier Molina
CarGo/Jason Kipnis for Robinson Cano/Jay Bruce/Jarrod Parker
CarGo/Jake Peavy for Curtis Granderson/Freddie Freeman/Kyle Lohse
CarGo/Stephen Strasburg for Joey Votto/Matt Garza/Edwin Encarnacion


Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

Source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1203342-fantasy-baseball-2012-the-carlos-gonzalez-trade-value-conundrum

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