The Tar Heels' regular season has wrapped, and it is time to prepare for tournament play.
Tuesday
The ACC tournament kicks off Tuesday with a game between Boston College and Georgia Tech in the early afternoon. North Carolina, despite a second-half swoon that saw it lose six of its final 10 games, managed to fall into a first-round tournament bye.
This was no big feat, as it simply required UNC to not be one of the ACC's four worst teams. On the other end, in disappointing fashion the Heels fell one game short of Louisville for a chance at receiving a double bye in this tournament.
Wednesday
Thus, North Carolina gets underway on Day 2 of the tourney, Wednesday, and will play the winner of that first match, Boston College vs. Georgia Tech.
During the regular season, UNC faced those two teams a combined three times and won all three games. It had the hardest time on the road at Boston College, but Carolina still escaped with an 11-point victory.
On a neutral floor in Greensboro—which is really home-ish for North Carolina compared to these other teams—UNC should have no trouble advancing to Day 3. This is where things get interesting.
Thursday
On Thursday, should the Tar Heels advance they will face off against the aforementioned Louisville Cardinals. Thus, the only drawback of finishing fifth in the regular season to Louisville's fourth was the requirement of playing Wednesday's game.
Should Carolina win Wednesday (obviously it needs to win for any of this to matter), playing that extra game could work to its advantage. The age-old conundrum of rest vs. rust doesn't totally come into play. North Carolina doesn't need the rest. It needs to come out sharp.
The first time Louisville and UNC met during the season, the Heels won by a single point. In the second matchup, it took overtime for the Cardinals to scrape out a victory. In other words, these two teams couldn't be closer.
... Except for two factors. Home-court advantage is thrown out, but the crowd should favor UNC. More importantly, Louisville will be without dismissed guard Chris Jones.
When the two teams played in early January, Jones was magnificent, scoring 19 points on just 12 field-goal attempts. He also added four rebounds and five assists. In the late January rematch, Jones shot horribly from the floor but still managed 17 points, five rebounds and four assists while hitting 60 percent of his threes and getting to the foul line nine times.
In both games, he was a strong factor.
In this potential ACC tournament game, he will be no factor at all, which is why UNC will advance. When two teams are this closely matched and one loses a main contributor, the advantage becomes obvious.
Of course, this is likely where North Carolina's run comes to a halt. Up next in a semifinal game would be the top-seeded Virginia Cavaliers.
Friday
Virginia is simply a bad matchup for UNC. Its pack-line defense is a nightmare for what Carolina wants to do on the offensive end. The way to beat UVA is to shoot over the top rather than attempt to penetrate the teeth of the defense, and the Heels aren't capable of winning that way.
To make matters worse, Virginia star Justin Anderson has recovered from his fractured finger and may be back for the ACC tournament, assuming he is feeling well after his appendectomy.
A two-game run into the semifinals of the conference tournament is nothing to scoff at. The Tar Heels probably need more to regain their upper-echelon status from a few weeks ago, but this outcome will set them up nicely for the real show: the NCAA tournament.
No comments:
Post a Comment