The Dallas Mavericks acquired Rajon Rondo earlier this season with the intention of making him the franchise point guard of the future. As the playoffs near, there is a lingering possibility that his tenure with the team will end this summer.
A lot of things can change between now and free agency. Dallas could make a deep run in the playoffs, and Rondo could soften his salary demands. As a result, both parties could reunite on good terms. Things could also go south, with the Mavs exiting the playoffs early and deciding to cut their losses by letting him walk.
Plenty of events point toward the latter alternative as the more realistic option. Rondo has served a suspension for getting into a shouting match with head coach Rick Carlisle and has been benched in the fourth quarter on several occasions. In addition, plenty of media outlets have outlined why he isn't a great fit in Dallas.
Regardless of what happens, Rondo's free agency will be interesting. He is part of a dying breed of point guards who can't shoot, which isn't a hot commodity around the league. He will also turn 30 next year, has seen his numbers decline since having knee surgery and is a tricky personality to fit on any team. He also wants a max contract that would be worth over $100 million, according to Boston Celtics analyst Cedric Maxwell on Yahoo Sports Radio.
Rondo is a talented passer who can fit in a system tailored around his talents, but there are a lot of red flags for any team that is considering throwing an offer his way. Several teams have already been linked with him, but finding a clean and obvious fit is tricky.
The Lakers are desperate to add talent. Kobe Bryant will be coming off yet another major injury next season, and it's hard to imagine this team turning the corner quick enough to give the future Hall of Famer one last championship run.
Even so, the Lakers' way has always been to add superstars and work out the rest later. Rondo hardly matches that label anymore, but it's likely that the two parties will meet this summer, according to Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders: "So real money, let’s peg the Lakers at $22.1 million to play with, that’s enough for one serious max contract to an established veteran like Monroe, Rondo or Love—and all three are said to be willing to meet with the Lakers this summer."
Bryant, who met with Rondo over dinner in Boston earlier in the season, has already given the point guard his seal of approval. Even though Rondo has taken the diplomatic approach of deflecting rumors, Kobe admitted in January that he won't stop the recruiting process.
“No way,” Bryant said, according to the Boston Herald's Steve Bulpett. “I'm not done. I'm not stopping until he signs an extension.”
Rondo's market value is probably at an all-time low right now. Even so, it wouldn't be past the Lakers to offer something in the vicinity of a max deal. They could partially justify it with the cap jumping in 2016-17 and their books being essentially clean that year. But simply adding Rondo wouldn't make the Lakers a much better team.
First of all, he would play next to Kobe. It's already blatantly evident that Rondo can't play off the ball and needs to dominate every possession to be effective. Unless Bryant intends to demote himself to a spot-up shooter, it's not really a backcourt match made in heaven.
The questionable backcourt synergy aside, the Lakers won't have much cap space to add more talent if they sign Rondo. Assuming they decline the team option on Jordan Hill's $9 million contract, they'd have a little wiggle room to go after some role players, but that's about it.
Rondo is still a fierce competitor, and it's fair to expect that he wants to play for a winning team. Still, it's certainly an option for him to take the money and bite the bullet during the 2015-16 season, after which the Lakers would be able to modify the roster around him.
From the outside looking in, this particular partnership doesn't make too much sense from a basketball perspective. Rondo isn't a clean fit on the court, won't single-handedly turn the team's fortunes around and is a sizable financial risk at this point of his career. But Kobe's word weighs a lot, and it's possible that the Lakers could offer Rondo the best deal possible this summer.
The Knicks are another team starved of NBA talent.
Other than their 2015 first-round draft pick (which they apparently are willing to trade, per ESPN New York's Ian Begley), the Knicks don't have many future picks. This means they will probably be looking to turn their fortunes around as quickly as possible.
Amar'e Stoudemire's contract—which handicapped the Knicks in free agency the last couple of years—is off the books now. Andrea Bargnani will also be an unrestricted free agent, and the Knicks could essentially strip their roster down to four players this summer.
For all the flak that Phil Jackson has been getting for New York's league-worst 14-57 record, he has positioned the franchise in a decent spot. By getting rid of Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith (and picking up some future second-rounders along the way), he will have an opportunity to shape the roster in whichever way he prefers.
But is Rondo the answer for the Knicks? He thrives in a pick-and-roll offense and would be an awkward fit in head coach Derek Fisher's triangle system. New York already has Jose Calderon under contract, who hasn't been great but is still a terrific shooter and passer.
It's possible that the Knicks could be looking to package Calderon with their first-round pick, and going after Rondo would make a little more sense if that was the case. It's even likelier they'd look to trade for a different point guard while aggressively pursuing a deeper pool of free-agent big men instead.
Jackson has to build a solid supporting cast around Carmelo Anthony as quickly as possible, but that doesn't mean he'll be desperate to acquire Rondo's services. New York has a need for talent, but signing the point guard to a huge deal would only leave room for another decent player and a top draft pick (if the Knicks decide to keep it).
A core featuring Anthony and Rondo would hardly give anyone scares, even in the Eastern Conference. Point guard is a deep position in today's NBA, and New York's need for a solid post-up big man to plug into the triangle trumps that of adding a player like Rondo.
Another interesting destination for Rondo would be the Sacramento Kings. It's highly questionable whether Rondo would be interested in joining a team like Sacramento, but playing with DeMarcus Cousins has to be at least somewhat attractive.
The Kings won't have cap space to sign Rondo outright, which means a sign-and-trade would have to take place. Sacramento has a ton of role players who could interest the Mavericks. Darren Collison has had a great season and is on a cap-friendly contract for two more years. Jason Thompson and Carl Landry might also entice Dallas.
This is pure speculation, and it wouldn't really make sense for Sacramento. From a basketball standpoint, Rondo would cramp the floor for Cousins, who needs room to operate in the post. Rudy Gay also needs the ball a ton, and that trio could potentially be a dysfunctional fit.
Even so, you can't put it past the Kings to make such a move. Trigger-happy team owner Vivek Ranadive is influential in front-office decisions, and he could well jump at an opportunity to land a big name.
Final Thoughts
Few teams around the league will have both sufficient cap space and a void to fill at point guard to consider making a serious run for Rondo.
His free agency will be intriguing either way. If the Lakers or the Knicks end up throwing a max deal Rondo's way, he would likely bolt. If either team somehow lands an even more attractive free agent, his market value would likely be diminished, and a return to Dallas wouldn't be out of the question.
Either way, it's hard to find a place for a point guard who can't shoot or get to the free-throw line (or in Rondo's case, shoot 34 percent when he gets there).
Rondo was a unique superstar who thrived with three Hall of Famers around him in Boston, all of whom complemented his playing style. As he enters the late stages of his career, finding such a perfect fit is virtually impossible.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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