Justin Forsett is 29, which is borderline geriatric in the world of running backs. This upcoming season, he'll turn 30, which is oftentimes a death knell for players at his position.
Looking only at his age and his resume—which features five teams in an eight-year span and only one 1,000-yard season—you'd think the Baltimore Ravens were overpaying him with the three-year, $9 million contract he received on Thursday, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.
But dig only a little bit deeper, and you begin to realize that if anything the Ravens are getting a discount. That's because age isn't as important as experience as well as the fact Forsett is only really emerging now.
Lots of tread on those tires
We're usually wary of backs at or around the age of 30, but that's because those backs have often been worked like horses for seven, eight, nine years. As I discovered in a recent study regarding new Buffalo Bills back LeSean McCoy, the majority of running backs appear to break down after about six or seven relatively full seasons.
But the key word there is "full." Forsett could be a major exception to rules regarding running back age limits because he never had more than 118 carries in a season before finally becoming a full-time back for the Ravens last season. He started only seven games in four years with the Seattle Seahawks and had a total of zero starts with the Houston Texans in 2012 and the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2013.
He missed most of that 2013 campaign with a foot injury but has been relatively healthy outside of that. The reality is the 2008 seventh-round pick often showed flashes but was never good enough to earn heavy reps before finally emerging as a consistent weapon in Baltimore.
It's possible his lights-out 2014 season was a fluke, but when you look closely at the numbers it's easy to become convinced Forsett has become an elite back.
What have you done for me lately?
That's the cliche we so often hear when players are being assessed, and it favors Forsett in a big way. Forsett averaged 5.4 yards per carry last season, which ranked tops among qualified backs by a third of a yard. Only three other qualified backs averaged more than 4.8 yards per attempt.
He also led the NFL with 17 rushes of 20 yards or more. Only one other back had more than nine.
If we're stressing short-term memories, he also left us with a stellar 129-yard performance in a playoff loss to the New England Patriots. He had five runs of 10-plus yards that day, giving the Ravens a hell of an opportunity to win a game they let slip away.
In fact, Forsett was good at leaving strong final impressions throughout the 2014 season. Among backs with at least 50 carries in the fourth quarter, he was by far the league's most dangerous runner.
Yeah, he was playing for a contract, but that was also the case when Forsett started five games for Seattle in 2010 and when he was given a heavy early-December workload with the Texans in 2012. But he didn't deliver at those junctures.
He's delivering now, though, which is why he should be highly valued even while playing a non-premium position.
Bargain for Baltimore
Again, we're talking about a guy who led all qualified NFL backs with 5.4 yards per carry and ranked fifth in the league in rushing. DeMarco Murray ranked first in the league in that category but had fewer big runs, averaged 0.7 fewer yards per carry within a stronger offense and removed far more tread from his tires during a season in which he had the sixth-highest touch total in NFL history.
And yet on the same day Forsett re-signed with Baltimore, Murray inked—the signing confirmed by the team's Twitter account—a five-year, $42 million deal with the Philadelphia Eagles, per ESPN's Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen.
Is Murray really worth $5.4 million more per season than Forsett?
According to Spotrac, 18 running backs currently possess contracts that pay them higher average annual salaries than Forsett. Included on that list:
- Frank Gore, who is 31 and has seen his numbers decline the last two seasons but got a three-year, $12 million deal from the Indianapolis Colts.
- Donald Brown, who has never started more than eight games or rushed for more than 650 yards in six seasons but signed a three-year, $10.5 million deal with the San Diego Chargers last offseason.
- Shane Vereen, who has never started more than six games or rushed for more than 400 yards in four seasons but signed a three-year, $12.4 million deal with the New York Giants earlier this week.
- Toby Gerhart, who has never started more than six games or rushed for more than 600 yards in five seasons but signed a three-year, $10.5 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars last offseason.
I'm not saying Forsett is worth Adrian Peterson money or even DeMarco Murray money. His age is a factor, as is the fact he's only had one big season. But he was an absolute stud within Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking scheme last year, and the Baltimore offense should look similar under the tutelage of Kubiak's replacement, Marc Trestman.
The fact that one of the league's best offensive players from 2014 is returning to Baltimore with a contract that is identical to the one Dexter freakin' McCluster signed with the Tennessee Titans last year indicates the Ravens have received a tremendous discount.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.
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