The eighth-seeded Oregon Ducks take on the ninth-seeded Oklahoma State Cowboys in a virtually even West Region matchup that will be played in Omaha, Nebraska, Friday. The Ducks may have seven more wins, but that has not translated much to the betting line, which has hovered close to a pick 'em since it opened.
Opening spread
The Ducks opened as one-point favorites (compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report).
Why pick Oklahoma State to cover the spread
While Oklahoma State did not finish the season strong, this is still a team that started out 7-0 and won 11 of 13 games before struggling a bit in Big 12 play. The Cowboys ended up going 8-10 in the conference, which got seven teams into the Big Dance, including a similar Texas Longhorns squad that finished with an identical league mark.
The NCAA tournament selection committee liked the conference enough to put every team with a winning record into the field, and now teams such as Oklahoma State have the opportunity to prove they belong.
Meanwhile, only four Pac-12 teams got into the tourney, and four more with winning records did not. Anything other than current form for each team seems to favor the Cowboys, who simply need to win the game to cover the spread.
Why pick Oregon to cover the spread
If you do like to look at the current form of both schools, then you will more than likely side with Oregon in this spot. Winners of seven of eight games and 11 of 12 before they lost to the top-seeded Arizona Wildcats 80-52 as 12.5-point underdogs in the Pac-12 Championship Game, the Ducks hope to continue their strong play of late and win their opening matchup in the Big Dance for the third year in a row.
They have covered the spread in each of their previous two round-of-64 games, blowing out the 10th-seeded BYU Cougars 87-68 last year as five-point favorites and knocking out a fifth-seeded Oklahoma State team 68-55 as two-point underdogs in 2013 en route to the Sweet 16.
Oregon deserves to be the higher seed against the Cowboys this time and will try to back up the committee’s thinking and prove that this team should be a bigger favorite.
Smart betting pick
In a game the oddsmakers believe will be as close as the seeding suggests, the Ducks have the X-factor who is fully capable of putting his teammates on his back and carrying them deep into the tournament in Pac-12 Player of the Year Joseph Young.
The transfer from the Houston Cougars made his senior year count at Oregon and seems poised to take this team far—except for the fact that the top-seeded Wisconsin Badgers will likely await the winner in the next round.
It is also difficult to ignore the current form of both teams here. The Ducks are 9-3-1 against the spread in their last 13 games, while Oklahoma State has dropped six of seven both straight up and ATS. Like two years ago when they last met, Oregon was and remains the better team.
Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)
Oklahoma State Cowboys: No. 197
Oregon Ducks: No. 101
March Madness betting trends
- Cowboys went 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games of the season.
- Cowboys have lost four straight NCAA tournament games, going 1-3 ATS.
- Oregon went 7-1 ATS in its last eight games of the season.
Note: All spread and betting line data powered by Odds Shark. Download the free Lines and Bet Tracker app in the Apple Store and on Google Play.
No comments:
Post a Comment