The AFC North title is in sight for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but first they must take care of business against the Kansas City Chiefs.
For the second straight season, the Steelers' playoff hopes rest on the Chiefs. Unlike last year, when they had to watch the playoffs from home after a loss to Kansas City kept them out, the Steelers get to control their fate.
With a win against the Chiefs (8-6) on Sunday, the Steelers (9-5) will clinch a playoff berth, per NFL.com. It would also put them within one win of a division title and a playoff game at home.
A win would be nearly as important for the Chiefs, who have won just one of their past four games. But despite this recent skid, they can assure themselves a playoff spot by winning their final two games.
Although the postseason is three weeks away, it will be a playoff-worthy battle between the Steelers and Chiefs at Heinz Field on Sunday. Here are the most crucial matchups that will have an impact in this Week 16 contest.
Le’Veon Bell vs. Jamaal Charles
Two of the most dynamic players will meet on Sunday, but it won’t be a head-to-head matchup.
With his combination of speed, agility and production, Jamaal Charles established himself as one of the top offensive weapons in the NFL. Though he remains an outstanding running back, injuries have taken their toll. Now, Le’Veon Bell has taken his place as the league’s most dangerous running back.
Through 14 games, Bell is second in the NFL in all-purpose yards with 2,043, per The Football Database. More importantly, he is the catalyst to the Steelers' success in recent weeks.
Over the past four games, Bell has 830 all-purpose yards and seven of his 10 total touchdowns this season. He has proved to be an effective runner and receiver and has developed into a big-play threat. Bell has a play of 40 yards or more in each of the Steelers' last three games.
Now he gets to go up against a rush defense which ranks 28th in the league, allowing 132.6 yards per game and a healthy 4.9 yards per carry. By comparison, Charles has to face the NFL’s 11th-best rush defense, which yields 103.6 yards per game.
Charles enters the game healthy and ready to go, according to head coach Andy Reid. Charles has struggled with “soreness in his knee and a sprained ankle,” per Adam Teicher of ESPN.com. As a result, Charles has been limited in recent weeks.
He has not touched the ball more than 14 times over the past three weeks and has just three games with 20 or more carries this season. For the year, Charles has 950 rushing yards and 235 receiving yards but an impressive 14 touchdowns.
Odds are that the more effective running back will help lead his team to a victory. A strong performance on first and second downs will keep the offense in manageable third-down situations, while potential for the big play in the rushing or receiving game can help tilt the field.
Given his production in recent weeks, the Steelers have a huge edge with Bell. He is playing at an MVP level right now, and he will be very difficult for the Chiefs to slow down, let alone shut down.
Marcus Gilbert vs. Justin Houston
After three consecutive games without their starting right tackle, the Steelers should have Marcus Gilbert back in the lineup on Sunday. Mike Tomlin has a “positive” outlook on Gilbert’s return on Sunday, via Scott Brown of ESPN.com.
Although Mike Adams has played fairly well in Gilbert’s absence, he struggles in pass protection—especially against speed-rushers. With one of the NFL’s best pass-rushers coming to Heinz Field on Sunday, Gilbert’s return comes just in time.
Justin Houston is tied for the league lead with 17 sacks. He has been doing well lately, with five sacks in his last four games, and has potential to add to his total on Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger has only been sacked twice over the past three games, but the Steelers have not faced a pass-rusher as talented as Houston.
Gilbert is an upgrade over Adams in pass protection, but he still struggles. He has allowed 5.0 sacks, according to The Washington Post. Rather than leave him alone on an island, the Steelers should provide him with help from the tight end and running back.
Kelvin Beachum had Heath Miller lined up on his side, but it was Bell who made an important block to help set up a first-down completion to Markus Wheaton.
Le'Veon Bell picked up blitz there nicely. one more thing he does well
— Ed Bouchette (@EdBouchette) December 14, 2014 However, Atlanta did not have the same type of dynamic pass rush that will come from Kansas City and Houston. He has an incredible first step off the snap, which will give Gilbert problems.
Against the Oakland Raiders, Houston had a quick first step, but the right tackle was able to gain position and engage while keeping his quarterback clean. However, as the play took longer to develop, Houston was able to gain the edge.
Houston dipped under the block and pursued Derek Carr as he stepped forward in the pocket.
With good coverage from the secondary, Houston was able to capitalize and brought down Carr for a two-yard loss.
Houston will not have as easy of a time bringing down Roethlisberger. Not only is he stronger than Carr, but he has done a good job of getting rid of the ball prior to the rushers getting to him. However, he may spend a lot of his day scrambling if Gilbert cannot get the job done.
The more disruptive Kansas City’s pass rush with Houston, the greater its odds of shutting down Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense.
Special Teams vs. De’Anthony Thomas
In the blink of an eye a game can change, and few things can change a game like a big play from the special teams. De’Anthony Thomas has potential to return a kick or punt for a touchdown at any time.
Though he does not qualify for the league leaders, Thomas has had a tremendous amount of success on kick returns. With only 12 returns on the year, he has averaged 31.9 yards per return, which is the best in the league for those with at least 10 kick returns.
Thomas may be even better on punt returns. He does not have a fair catch and averages 11.7 yards per return, which ranks fourth in the league. Last week, he added his first return touchdown of his career.
Raiders punter Marquette King blasted a 57-yard punt, slightly outkicking his coverage. The result was disastrous. Thomas made one quick cut inside before shifting back outside, where he was able to follow a wall of blockers to the end zone.
With one touchdown under his belt, Thomas has a lot of confidence, via Adam Teicher of ESPN.com:
“I’ve been learning, I’ve been learning the whole season,” Thomas said. “It’s to the point where I’m starting to get a feel of it. I’m just excited to be back there and have an opportunity to catch punts for this team and just set the tone. I want to go out there, make plays and get our team going.”
At times, the Steelers struggle with their coverage units. They have allowed 23.4 yards per kick return this year—including a 108-yard touchdown—and 8.5 yards per punt return. As seen against the Atlanta Falcons, it takes a long return before Danny Smith will make adjustments with his special teams units.
Against Atlanta, Devin Hester broke loose a 43-yard return before he had Shaun Suisham take a different approach to kickoffs. The last thing the Steelers need at home is for Thomas to have a long return to take the crowd out of the game.
Whether it is for a score or just shifting the field position, special teams will play a major role in the outcome on Sunday, and the Steelers must account for Thomas.
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all stats are courtesy of ESPN.com, and all roster information is courtesy of Steelers.com.
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