Don’t be a wimp.
Taking a large spread is always easier when the team is playing at home.
This week there are two home favorites that force you to lay bundles of points, but are worth taking because of extraordinary circumstances.
(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com.)
New York Giants (-9.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
The Giants have won four of their last five games, are getting their best defensive player Justin Tuck back and are rested coming off a bye.
The Dolphins are fresh off a complete collapse against the Broncos and are playing with the knowledge that their coach is a dead duck—as is the season in general.
With little motivation, expect the defensive effort to be severely lacking.
Considering Matt Moore is questionable with bruised ribs and J.P. Losman might have to play, this is going to be an absolute romp.
Prediction: Giants 38, Dolphins 16
Key Trends:
Dolphins are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games.
Dolphins are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
Giants are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games in October.
Houston Texans -9.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are coming off a huge victory and only have six days to prepare for a divisional opponent that has owned them of late. They won the two matchups last year by an average of 12 points, and now the Jags have a rookie QB that looks overmatched in his small sample size.
The Texans finally have a healthy Arian Foster, making the offense incredibly balanced and explosive. WR Andre Johnson is expected to return and the Texans currently have a three-game win streak in the division.
The Jags are 31st in the NFL, averaging a mere 12 points a game, and the Texans lead the AFC sacks.
Too many factors trending in Houston’s favor to ignore.
Prediction: Texans 27, Jaguars 13
Key Trends:
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Houston.
Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. AFC South.
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