Here's a quick look at three running backs, who are gaining steam as popular sleepers, that you should smartly tame your expectations for.
Montario Hardesty, Cleveland Browns
Peyton Hillis is officially out, so Hardesty will get the start, making him a popular sleeper around most leagues.
Not so fast.
Hardesty goes up against a Seattle Seahawks defense that is coming off a bye and is allowing just 3.1 yards per carry, best in the NFL. Not only that, Seattle's pass D has been pretty horrible, allowing 7.5 yards per attempt, eight worst in the league.
The Browns are likely to turn to the air with Colt McCoy early and often in this one. Since Hardesty is the starter he'll still likely net 15 touches, but I'm not so confident he'll do a ton with those against this defense.
He's flex material only.
Maurice Morris, Detroit Lions
It has been confirmed that Morris will get the majority of the work today, so he's not a bad sleeper pick.
Still though, this is another case of a team that will pass more than it will run. The Falcons defense is pretty stout against the run, giving up just 3.8 yards per carry.
And, as it turns out, Detroit's combination of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are pretty good through the air. They should put it up quite a bit.
Again, Morris, like Hardesty, is flex-worthy, but he's a 31-year-old running back who hasn't averaged 4.5 yards per carry in a season since 2007. He's far from explosive.
DeMarco Murray
Murray, the quick rookie out of Oklahoma, is becoming a quite popular sleeper pick with fellow running back Felix Jones out for a couple weeks.
While Murray has some nice long-term value with the injury-prone Jones out, I'm taking a wait-and-see approach on this one.
The St. Louis Rams have been pretty bad against the run, giving up 4.9 yards per carry, but the Cowboys have been just as bad on offense, averaging a pedestrian 3.4 yards per carry.
Dallas has a bunch of quicker linemen, but they seem to try to run the ball up the middle more often than not when they should be getting it outside.
It didn't work with Jones, and it won't work with Murray who is a similar type of speed back.
On top of that, Murray won't even get the full load of carries as he will split time with Tashard Choice.
It's a nice matchup, but be careful of the rookie.
No comments:
Post a Comment