Obviously, no NFL executive, coach, fan or snarky fantasy blogger can predict the future with amazing accuracy, but certain gut instincts or statistical assumptions must come into play when investing time, money, emotions and playbook resources into Round 1 quarterbacks.
To wit, here's my annual acid test for NFL general managers when contemplating a quarterback high in the draft. If a particular man-crush doesn't meet any of the criteria below, it's probably best to pass on the prospective rookie and wait for the next QB to move up the ladder.
- Will your Round 1 man-crush become the starter for at least seven games in Year 1? (Precedent: Dan Marino, John Elway, Ben Roethlisberger)
- Can your prospective stud orchestrate a significant win-loss turnaround in Year 2? (Peyton Manning in 1999)
- Does he have the capacity for 3,800 passing yards in Year 2? (Elway, Marino, Manning)
- Can your Round 1 stud average 65 percent passing from Years 2 through 8 (Troy Aikman)?
- Will your Round 1 man-crush annually exceed 4,000 yards passing after his 30th birthday—for the team that drafted him? (Marino, Manning)
- Can he throw for 60 combined TDs in Years 3 and 4? (Marino, Jim Everett)
- Does your Round 1 stud have the potential for 2,500 yards passing and 900 rushing yards in the same season (Michael Vick)?
- Can your Round 1 man-crush reach the Super Bowl within his first four seasons? (Eli Manning, Marino, Elway, Aikman)
- Does your Round 1 stud possess the greatest arm you've ever seen—or might ever see? (Matthew Stafford, Jeff George)
- Where would your Round 1 man-crush have been slotted against Jake Locker (No. 8 overall), Blaine Gabbert (No. 10) and Christian Ponder (No. 12) in the 2011 NFL draft?
- And finally, would you rather have your guy or Cincy's Andy Dalton?
Verdict
If a GM can honestly give affirmative answers to the majority of questions, by all means, go ahead and draft your Round 1 favorite with supreme confidence. Then, sit back and enjoy the fruits of your prescient labor for the next 10-15 seasons (obviously, Jeff George didn't work out for the Colts—even though he matched the criteria of a franchise savior).
However, if you answered "No" for the most part, don't fret.
Just take a deep breath, consult your larger-than-life draft board and focus on taking a top-rated offensive or defensive lineman in Round 1, or make the bold plunge for a playmaking linebacker (Luke Kuechly) or safety (Mark Barron). You can never go wrong with infrastructure picks.
If you feel like taking a quarterback in the latter rounds, that's OK, too.
After all, neither Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Joe Montana nor Brett Favre were Round 1 selections—and they all survived the heartbreak of not being labeled can't-miss kids coming out of college.
Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.
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